Question 4

Does model capability correlate with stronger persuasion or hijacking behavior?

Within the anthropic family, extraction falls as capability rises (72% to 47% of rivals' actions) — weak evidence from 2 of 6 rungs.

Evidence links

Every mark is backed by a transcript: marks deep-link to the episode behind them, so clicking a mark opens the transcript reader at that episode’s event. The same episodes are listed in the table below.

Reading

The planned readout is a line: budget extraction rate — Q3's y-axis, share of rivals' possible actions captured — against an external capability score pinned at pre-registration, one point per model, correlation stated. The external axis (Arena Elo or an MMLU-class score) is not yet pinned, so what exists today is the within-family view. We report the shape, whatever it is.

One family has two observed rungs so far. Anthropic: slope -0.016 net capture per ladder rung (95% CI [-0.027, -0.004], n = 10 episode points). The negative sign means the higher rung (opus-4.8) captured less than the lower (sonnet-4.6) in this draw; in the shared extraction currency the two rungs read the same way — sonnet-4.6 took 72.2% of its rivals' possible actions, opus-4.8 46.8%. The slope CI excludes zero, but this is a line through two rungs at 5 episodes each, in one family; it cannot establish a shape. It is consistent with the wider calibration picture that extraction is not monotone in capability (a 4B model outscored two frontier models, see Q3). We treat this as noise-level and interesting if it replicates. Next: attack_complete over the roster's full ladders (Anthropic 4 rungs, OpenAI 4, Google 3, and others), with the capability axis pinned before those runs.

Statistics

measured

yes

needs

—

families.anthropic.slope.value

-0.0162

families.anthropic.slope.ci

[-0.0273, -0.00355]

families.anthropic.slope.n

10

summary.questions.q4 rendered verbatim; missing values shown as —.

Episodes

All episodes measured so far (40), sorted by condition then id; episode links open the transcript reader.

Downloads

q4.svg · summary.json