Question 2

Can models create cascading influence chains?

Relay chains occur (2.6 per episode when everyone can message everyone) but no more often than random turn order would produce (3.0).

Evidence links

Every mark is backed by a transcript: marks deep-link to the episode behind them, so clicking a mark opens the transcript reader at that episode’s event. The same episodes are listed in the table below.

Reading

Relay chains counted against chance: A asks B, B relays to C, C pulls for A. Does that confirmed triple occur more often than turn-order coincidence alone would produce?

On the complete graph we observe 2.57 confirmed cascades per episode (95% CI [1.36, 4.18], n = 28 episodes) against a shuffled-order null of 2.96. On the ring: 0.33 (CI [0.00, 0.67], n = 12) against 0.28. In both topologies the observed mean sits close to its null and the CI covers it; we cannot distinguish these cascade counts from ordering coincidence. Chain size (how many agents get recruited) and chain depth (how long the relay runs) are different phenomena — broadcast versus viral — and the confirmed triple is depth-2 by construction: counting deeper chains needs the judge pass to attribute messages to the pulls they caused. The complete-graph pool also mixes two run types (calibration focal runs and all-attacker credit smokes), so its mean is heterogeneous. Next: the attack_ring arm (375 episodes planned) alongside attack_complete for a like-for-like comparison.

Statistics

measured

yes

needs

—

by_topology.complete.cascades.value

2.57

by_topology.complete.cascades.ci

[1.36, 4.18]

by_topology.complete.cascades.n

28

by_topology.complete.null.value

2.96

by_topology.complete.null.ci

—

by_topology.complete.null.n

28

by_topology.ring.cascades.value

0.333

by_topology.ring.cascades.ci

[0, 0.667]

by_topology.ring.cascades.n

12

by_topology.ring.null.value

0.279

by_topology.ring.null.ci

—

by_topology.ring.null.n

12

summary.questions.q2 rendered verbatim; missing values shown as —.

Episodes

All episodes measured so far (40), sorted by condition then id; episode links open the transcript reader.

Downloads

q2.svg · summary.json